CoverScore
Methodology

What we don't know, published on purpose

“Never a homemade number” means something specific: when the evidence has a hole in it, we say so instead of quietly smoothing over it. Below are every documented gap behind the CoverScore registry — 15 total, 14 still open.

aging · 7 gaps

gap.aging.alz_lifetime_65Open

Age-65 lifetime Alzheimer's risk by sex from the 2026 F&F edition (p.32) not extracted; only the age-45 anchors (1 in 5 women / 1 in 10 men) are verified.

gap.aging.claiming_sex_splitsOpen

SSA Supplement Table 6.B5 sex-specific claiming shares could not be reliably extracted (two fetch runs conflicted). Totals verified; do not use by-sex splits without a direct table read.

gap.aging.decade_death_probOpen

No source publishes 10-year death probabilities at ages 50/60/70/80. Only 1-year q(x) and l(x) exist; a decade figure requires a labeled derivation.

gap.aging.ic3_bandsOpen

FBI IC3 publishes no age band above 60+; BJS identity theft none above 65+; FTC's Protecting Older Consumers aggregates 60+ except 80+ callouts.

gap.aging.ltci_by_decadeOpen

LTC insurance ownership rates by decade band (50-59/60-69/70-79) not published; only 50+ and 65+ aggregates.

gap.aging.nursinghome_ratesOpen

No federal per-capita nursing-home residence rates by age since 2004 (NNHS discontinued; NPALS publishes resident distribution only).

gap.aging.ssdi_historical_tablePartially closed

Historical SSDI incidence per 1,000 by 5-year band from Actuarial Study 125 Table 4 (p.23).

Closure note: 2022 Trustees Report ultimate incidence rates obtained (life.ssdi.incidence); Study 125's historical Table 4 remains unextractable (PDF truncation + proxy block).

contents · 1 gap

gap.contents.inventory_outcomesOpen

No study anywhere compares settlement amount or speed for policyholders WITH vs WITHOUT a pre-loss inventory. Confirmed absent across UP surveys, state DOIs, NAIC, academic literature. Do not invent; use the burden framing (cont.itemization.burden).

data privacy · 2 gaps

gap.data.freeze_causalOpen

No causal effectiveness study of credit freezes on new-account fraud. Mechanism argument only; nearest evidence is the Philly Fed extended-fraud-alert paper (2025).

gap.data.misuse_by_typeOpen

No P(financial misuse | breach exposure) by data type (SSN vs credentials vs medical). GAO's last federal attempt (2007) found it unmeasurable.

health · 1 gap

gap.health.screening_nns_gapsOpen

No published NNS for cervical, hypertension, diabetes, or lipid screening; no absolute ARR for FIT/gFOBT/sigmoidoscopy in current USPSTF materials.

life financial · 1 gap

gap.life.attained_age_disabilityOpen

SSA publishes no probability of disability/death from an attained age (50s/60s) to NRA — AN 2025.6 tables are cumulative from age 20 (verified against table headers).

property · 2 gaps

gap.property.fhsz_annualOpen

No agency publishes annualized structure-loss probability by CAL FIRE FHSZ tier; First Street 30-yr vendor tiers are the nearest substitute.

gap.property.flood_zone_xOpen

No official 30-year flood probability for FEMA zones X / X-shaded (the 1-in-4 figure covers SFHA only).

vehicles · 1 gap

gap.vehicles.age_fault_tableOpen

No public at-fault collision probability table by age band; only per-mile ratios and crash shares. Claim frequency by annual mileage is telematics-proprietary.

This page updates as the evidence base grows. If a gap above closes, the registry — not marketing copy — is what changes first.

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